pinballps4|航天军工行业专题研究：需求处于磨底阶段 静待向上拐点

The impact of the medium-term adjustment gradually appeared, and the marginal growth rate of the plate performance slowed down. The defense and military industry (Citic) plate achieved revenue of 4809 in 2023.Pinballps4.6.3 billion yuan, year-on-year + 9.79%, realized net profit of 27.759 billion yuan, revenue of 90.297 billion yuan, + 4.66%, net profit of 5.907 billion yuan,-17.71%. Due to the mid-term adjustment of the "14th five-year Plan", the downstream demand of the industry has weakened in stages, while the price pressure of some products is obvious. The net interest rate of the whole year of 2023 and the 24Q1 plate has declined. 23 and 24Q1 industry contract liabilities + prepayments have shown a high downward trend, or it means that the industry is at the end of digesting the first batch of large orders during the 14th five-year Plan, and the landing of medium-term orders may become a barometer of the fundamentals of the sector.Pinballps4We maintain the "one main body, two rates" investment framework, and suggest that we should pay attention to the direction of informatization, new materials, aero-engines, new quality and new domain. 24Q1 industry orders are generally weak, plate profitability is under pressure, downstream mainframe factory 24Q1 final contract liabilities + advance receipts total 48.901 billion yuan, year-on-year-28.67%; mid-stream matching factory 24Q1 final contract liabilities + prepaid accounts for 3.379 billion yuan, year-on-year-24.59%; manufacturing plant 24Q1 final contract liabilities + prepaid accounts for 755 million yuan, year-on-year-29.06% Upstream new materials enterprises 24Q1 final contract liabilities + advance collection of 1.862 billion yuan, year-on-year + 18.46%. Overall, the weakening of bottom-up orders in the industrial chain has not significantly improved, but the new materials sector contract liabilities 24Q1 has recovered, or indicates that the industry demand is gradually clear. The gross profit margin and net profit margin of 2023Q4 are 18.94% and 1.26% respectively, with year-on-year changes of + 0.33% and 21.65%, respectively. The net profit margin and net profit rate of 2024Q1 are 21.65% and 6.77%, respectively, and the year-on-year changes are-2.26/-1.74pct. The performance of the upper and lower reaches of the "14th five-year Plan" industrial chain is expected to grow spirally, and the military industrial chain is long, and expansion requires the cooperation of the whole industrial chain, so the increase in production capacity is relatively slow; at the same time, many new models entered the batch stage during the 14th five-year Plan period, and a variety of factors in the initial stage of production led to the obvious lag of the performance release in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain. We observe that the total amount of fixed assets + projects under construction at the end of the 2024Q1 period of the information sector is 35.147 billion yuan, which is + 13.34% compared with the same period last year. Capacity expansion and capacity building of the plate continued. As the supporting capacity of the industrial chain is gradually in place, the performance growth rate or improvement of enterprises in the middle and lower reaches is obvious, and the expansion of production capacity in the lower reaches means the improvement of the capacity to undertake raw materials in the middle and upper reaches, which once again triggers a new round of production expansion cycle in the upper and middle reaches. We believe that this upstream and downstream spiral capacity expansion and performance growth will run through the whole 14th five-year Plan period. Focusing on informationization, new materials, aero-engines, new quality and new domain, new materials are the key to equipment upgrading and the bottleneck link for the industry to achieve a breakthrough, and related industries may fully benefit; in the aspect of informatization, at present, driven by the triple factors of weapons and equipment volume, information rate and localization rate, the economy remains high, and the relevant targets are expected to maintain a high level of performance growth. In terms of aero-engines, 1) short-term: the current military aircraft installation drives batch production models; 2) in the medium term: the key technical capabilities of China's fourth-generation engines have been greatly improved, and the research and development of models has been transferred to the batch production stage; 3) long-term: CJ-1000/2000 commercial engines are accelerated development and launch, or determine the long-term industry high-profile bearing; 4) after the market: the increase in military aircraft training brings aircraft replacement and maintenance demand. In terms of new quality and new domain, underwater attack and defense, laser weapons and satellite Internet are emerging combat forces, and the industry can continue to grow. Risk hint: the new equipment installation is not up to the expected risk, the uncertainty of the military pricing mechanism, and the impact of other businesses on the profits of military enterprises is difficult to predict. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.

[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.