pennmag3|日本一周内两次干预汇市，总规模约9万亿日元

May 2ndPennmag3According to the Bank of Japan account data, Japan conducted its second yen intervention on Thursday, the scale of which may be 3.Pennmag3.5 trillion yen.

Earlier, Japan may have intervened in the exchange rate of the yen on Monday (April 29), the first official intervention in the currency market since 2022.Pennmag3.5 trillion yen. The total amount of the two times is about 9 trillion yen.

The yen surged from about 157.58 yen to 153.04 yen against the dollar in late US trading overnight, as traders speculated that Japan might have intervened.

However, the rally failed to maintain. During the Asian session on Thursday, the yen fell 1.1 per cent against the dollar, hitting 156.28 yen, closer to where it was before the suspected intervention, leading the market to further question the effectiveness of the Japanese official intervention.

After two rounds of suspected intervention this week, the Japanese authorities' efforts to keep the yen strong have largely failed. Analysts point out that the huge interest rate gap between Japan and the United States is one of the root causes of the depreciation of the yen.

Shoki Omori, chief strategist at Mizuho Securities, said that now the Japanese authorities are considered to intervene again, but it gives the impression thatPennmag3They cannot stop the depreciation of the yen on their own, and investors may feel more comfortable shorting the yen.

What makes bears more confident is that the wide gap in benchmark bond yields between the US and Japan means that even if Japanese officials intervene, they are doomed to failure.

With US-Japan interest rate spreads currently high at 3.7 percentage points, foreign exchange intervention cannot reverse the huge interest rate gap unless there are clear signs that the Fed will begin to cut interest rates.

The yen has fallen 8 per cent against the dollar since the Japanese government intervened in September 2022, when the spread between the US and Japan was close to 3 percentage points.

Wall Street reported earlier that due to the postponement of Fed interest rate cuts, there is no hope of narrowing interest rates in Japan and the United States, so analysts expect Japanese officials to have a tug-of-war with the market this year to support the yen exchange rate.

The two trading days of May 3 and 6 are the Golden week holiday in Japan, and the foreign exchange market is less liquid. The London market will also be closed on May 6, and the market is light, which may increase exchange rate volatility. If Friday's US jobs data support the dollar and further drag on the yen, Japan may act.

Takuya Kanda, director of research at Gaitame Research Institute, said:

The possibility of more intervention during the Golden week is high, especially on the 6th, when the USDJPY is likely to strengthen on Friday, driven by US employment data.