123reels| Direct Omaha| Chen Kaifeng: "The sky is the limit" for U.S. stock investment

专题：巴菲特2024年股东大会重磅来袭

　　全球投资者关注的伯克希尔哈撒韦股东大会在内布拉斯加州小城奥马哈召开，新浪财经在股东大会现场对话美国汇盛金融公司首席经济学家陈凯丰。

　　谈及人工智能，123reels他认为目前人工智能在美国应该是个全面开花的阶段，有很多可以投资的公司，美股投资“天空才是极限”。

　　“人工智能里面最大的三块，一个是硬件，就是芯片，一个是软件，第三个就是所谓的数据和算力，很明显这三块现在美国都是非常领先”，陈凯丰认为，从这点来看的话，美国下一步的经济驱动力是非常巨大的，股市肯定会受益，和两三年前的投资美股逻辑不一样了。

　　他介绍了当前比较看好的行业机会：一个就是医疗健康，医疗健康版块里面，包括医疗服务，包括生物科，就是干细胞，癌症治疗等等；另外一个就是金融科技，全球支付；还有一个是健康食品，健康食品就包括有机食品、有机农业等等；还有就是电动车，电动卡车。

　　嘉宾金句：

　　目前人工智能在美国应该是个全面开花的阶段，有很多可以投资的公司。

　　太阳能、风能，还有包括新能源的车，还有整个储能体系，我相信现在都是非常好的机会。而目这个也不是短期的机会，是一个五到十年，几十年的一个投资机会。

　　中国企业下一步最大的机会，是把产能推到其他国家去，而不是在中国国内内卷。

　　以下是采访陈凯丰实录。

　　新浪财经：陈教授，非常感谢您接受新浪财经对您的专访，对于今年的股东大会，您比较关注哪些领域的话题呢？

　　陈凯丰：关注了很多，一个当然是要看巴菲特下一步有什么打算，最近他把苹果的仓位降低了一点，包括他手头的那个现金，储备又创了新高，包括他下一步的投资，当然他现在有很多投资，他是手下两个接班人Ted和Todd在做，想听听他下一步的规划。还有包括他去年现在时候谈了很多人工智能，人工智能这个话题从去年到现在是非常火爆的，他也提前一年跟大家说了，我想听他对人工智能下一步的看法。

　　当然还有很大一部分是日本，三年前他布局日本，跟全世界人说了，已经赚了好几倍了，那下一步对日本有什么打算？我看他好像1月份又加仓日本了。所以想看看他下一步对日本的看法吧。各个方面，当然还有很多宏观的想听他聊一聊。

　　新浪财经：投资Open Al是微软在近几年做的最成功的投资决策之一。您在去年新浪财经的专访当中就提倡大家投资微软，非常有先见之明，那您现在还会继续建议大家投资微软吗？或者您有什么其他人工智能领域的公司推荐呢？

　　陈凯丰：当然有很多，关于Open Al，当然去年到现在发生很多的事情，包括他的CEO被解职，然后又回来，但整个过程之中有一点很明显，就是微软的CEO对这个事情处理的非常得体。从头到尾他就说我会支持Open Al，但是呢，不去干预。实际上微软在里面非常受益，但是又让大家感觉他给Open Al留下了独立性。

　　所以从各方面来看，我觉得微软在人工智能里面肯定是受益的，但实际上也不光是微软，苹果自己也有很多人工智能技术在开发，而且包括它的语音助理啊等等，包括特斯拉等等，目前人工智能在美国应该是个全面开花的阶段，有很多可以投资的公司。当然还有开始我提到的，9岁开始和巴菲特一起打了10年乒乓球的这个小女孩Aerial，现在也是在做人工智能的创业公司。所以，我相信这个领域里面有很多机会。

　　新浪财经：人工智能的发展离不开它算力的支持，比如说芯片公司英伟达的股票，在过去的一年可以说是飞速增长了好几倍，您觉得英伟达的股票适合长期持有吗？

　　陈凯丰：英伟达的股票当然是这个龙头。人工智能龙头行业的股票是非常值得持有的，但不光是算力本身吧，其实能源也是，而现在因为人工智能耗能太大，美国已经开始缺少能源，英伟达的芯片是高耗能的，它里面提供能源的其实是巴菲特公司，巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦能源公司是美国的最大能源公司之一，现在德州等都开始缺电，对他们来说其实是都是受益的。

　　新浪财经：所以说，巴菲特在去年的股东大会当中，他好像不太确定人工智能的发展，但是他间接地通过人工智能大赚了一笔。比如通过他在能源方面的投资。说到能源，现在的新能源，环保能源是一个非常热门的投资话题，您对这一方面有怎样的投资见解？

　　陈凯丰：现在整个新能源市场，我觉得是个大趋势，毫无疑问的。不管太阳能、风能，还有包括新能源的车，还有整个储能体系，我相信现在是个非常好的机会。而目这个也不是短期的机会，是一个五到十年，几十年的一个投资机会。不光是我们去投，其实巴菲特自己也在投，伯克希尔每年在新能源上面的投入都能达到几百亿美元这种规模。

　　新浪财经：现在新能源电动车这个行业的发展好像也是非常迅速，竞争非常的激烈，感觉他的护城河好像没有那么高，所以说他不太符合巴菲特的价值投资理念对不对？

Chen Kaifeng: I think so. Of course, at present, what you see most about electric cars is the year of sedan cars, which people drive every day, but in fact, electric cars are not only this kind, but there are many other ones, for example, a particularly good one is called agricultural machinery. Buffett is one of their largest shareholders, Bill Gates is also a major shareholder, he developed a large-scale integrated agricultural harvester and so on. There are also satellite navigation, artificial intelligence, and also electricity, all of which are driven by electricity, including, for example, current express vehicles like Amazon and electric trucks. So now this electrification trend is that there are many other electric car concepts that are far beyond what people think of this kind of car. In fact, there are many new ones being pushed out.

Sina Finance: when it comes to Open Al, its recently launched text-to-video model Sora is also very popular. The name Sora actually comes from the emptiness of Japanese, the emptiness of the sky. Speaking of the sky reminds me of Professor Chen's recent assessment of the development prospects of the US stock market on Sina Weibo: the sky is the limit. Could you explain the meaning of this sentence?

Chen Kaifeng: indeed, because we are now investing in the world and going to many countries, we can feel that the development of artificial intelligence is indeed unstoppable. the three largest pieces of artificial intelligence, one is hardware, that is, chips, and the other is software. it is the artificial intelligence big data model, and the third is the so-called data and computing power. Well, it is obvious that the United States is now very ahead of these three pieces. from this point of view, the driving force for the next step of the US economy is very huge, and the stock market will certainly benefit, which is different from the logic of investing in US stocks about two or three years ago. So the reason why I say that the sky is the limit now is that this large technology stock benefits from the three parts of artificial intelligence, software, hardware and data are all of great help.

Sina Finance: you just mentioned that Buffett reduced his holdings of Apple stocks. What kind of impact do you think his investment decision will have on Berkshire's business in the long and short term?

Chen Kaifeng: OK, first of all, Apple's performance in recent years is average, its revenue has dropped, but its profit is still good, its profit is very good, but its growth is weak. And Apple wanted to be its own car, electric car, but now it has given up. Apple makes new things like vision Pro, three-dimensional AR and VR, which are still very good. But it seems to give people the impression that Apple's own large-scale development may be limited, but Apple buybacks on a large scale, so if you are an Apple shareholder and you hold on to it, your share share is on the rise. So for Buffett, I think it is the right thing to do to sell some Apple shares. His share is getting higher and higher, so he should sell part of it to do something else.

Sina Finance and Economics: you just mentioned the repurchase of this stock. Recently, I am also concerned about a stock, that is, Meta. Its stock has also risen very fast. There is a big feeling that it has also started stock buyback and began to pay dividends. Do you think his move will attract Buffett, who likes cash flow very much, to invest in him?

Chen Kaifeng: this is hard to say, because Meta is really a pure software or partial software company. Buffett's words, I think he still likes hardware companies, especially those related to consumer goods. He especially likes consumer goods like Apple. Social networks like Meta may not fall within his circle of competence or are most concerned about.

Sina Finance: well, yes, Buffett doesn't seem to pay much attention to technology stocks and so on. For example, he doesn't think Apple belongs to technology stocks, he thinks it belongs to consumer stocks. When it comes to consumer goods, such as brands going out to sea, in the global economic environment, it seems that it is an inevitable trend for brands to go out to sea, such as Mata, whose stock is very good. Another big reason is that it benefits from the huge advertising revenue of cross-border e-commerce, such as pinduoduo Temu. What do you think is the probability of investing in Chinese brands going abroad?

Chen Kaifeng: China now has an advantage, that is, the cost advantage of the manufacturing industry, and it can be said that its production process, ah, has been very optimized. Therefore, China has an advantage in this point, but its disadvantage is tariff. All countries are increasing tariffs on China, and financial barriers are getting higher and higher.

Therefore, in the future, when Chinese brands export, I think the only thing we can do is local manufacturing, that is, to learn from Japan at that time. For example, if China wants to export products to the United States, it has to build a factory in the United States, and if it wants to export products to Germany, it has to build a factory in Germany. If it is exported to the Middle East now, it will build a factory in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia in the future.

At present, this is a major trend, that is, you have to sell and make local. I think this is also the biggest opportunity for Chinese enterprises to push their production capacity to other countries, not in China. Now the domestic word is called inner volume, isn't it? He wants to put his production capacity to other countries, so to speak, this is the only way to internationalization.

Sina Finance: it sounds like this enterprise is going out to sea, and localization is also very important. Right now, at a time when the Fed has been slow to raise interest rates, with very high interest rates, very high inflation and very weak economic growth, what investment opportunities do you see? For example, some industries that you prefer and so on?

Chen Kaifeng: let me tell you about some of the industries we do now, all because we are relatively optimistic. One is medical and health, the medical and health section, including medical services, including biology, that is, stem cells, cancer treatment, etc.; the other is financial technology, global payments, which we also invest in; there is also health food, including organic food, organic agriculture, and so on; and electric cars, electric trucks. I think these are all industries with great opportunities. It can be said that the rapid growth of technology and the opportunity to subvert the existing industries are what we prefer.

Sina Finance: so let's go back to Buffett, Buffett's Berkshire, who bought the operator of the largest travel service center in the United States in January this year. What do you think of this decision?

Chen Kaifeng: I saw it today, too. There is a new pilot in this venue today, isn't there? Of course, although the acquisition, but there are still some problems, he now has a legal problem, that is, the seller is suing, want to get more money. I think this is actually quite typical. Buffett's favorite company with a high moat is equivalent to serving the truck driver. At the same time, in various parts of the United States, some retail, and so on, these are more difficult to re-copy, barriers to entry are very high, if he manages better, revenue, profits and cash flow will increase.

　　新浪财经：非常感谢陈教授的精彩分享，再次感谢陈教授接受新浪财经的专访，希望在明天的股东大会和明天晚上新浪财经主办的中美投资人酒会上再次见到陈教授。感谢您。

　　（新浪财经驻美特派员 白雪Amanda 郭一潔Monica 发自美国奥马哈）